Add wheat to the extensive list of commodities markets dominated by Chinese buyers.
Already the world’s top importer of corn and soybeans, the nation is now poised to overtake Egypt and Turkey as the biggest buyer of wheat in the year through June, Chinese and US official data show. Purchases exceeded 12 million tons in the first 11 months of the marketing year, which runs through June. More than half of those cargoes were supplied by Australia.
Imports of the food staple accelerated above 1 million tons a month from October, before peaking at a record of 1.68 million tons in April. The US Department of Agriculture is forecasting another 12 million tons of Chinese imports in 2023-2024 after damage to the latest harvest left a lot of the crop suitable only for animal feed.
Heavy rains in Henan, China’s biggest growing region, have affected quality and pushed up prices of the higher-protein grain used to make bread and noodles. That should benefit wheat farmers and shippers around the world, while potentially hurting demand for other feed ingredients like corn and soybeans as more wheat gets swapped into livestock rations.
“Imports have been quite profitable and lots of cargoes were booked,” said Zhang Zhidong, senior analyst with Guolian Futures Co. “Domestic grains are expensive and stockpiles are falling, so there is the demand.”
Purchases should stay elevated if prices remain favorable and buyers need to replenish their reserves, said Rosa Wang, an analyst with consultancy Shanghai JC Intelligence Co.
The Week’s Diary
(All times Beijing unless noted otherwise.)
Wednesday, June 21
- CCTD’s weekly online briefing on Chinese coal, 15:00
- Shanghai exchange weekly commodities inventory, ~15:30
Thursday, June 22
- Holiday in China, Hong Kong
Friday, June 23
- Holiday in China
On the Wire
Some key gauges of China’s copper market are hinting that demand for the metal is faring well despite a steady flow of downbeat economic news.
Solar stocks are plunging even as demand for panels boom. The combined market capitalization of the four largest producers, all based in China, has dropped by more than 40% since August.
China is likely to cut the reserve-requirement ratio for banks and interest rates further this year as part of efforts to shore up the world’s second-largest economy, according to the country’s top three securities newspapers, citing analysts.
